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Market Reports

Turkish Apricot Update 07/08/2019

2018 Crop Wrap

  • Exports in July were 4,380  tons, compared to 3,964 tons last year, an increase of 10 %
  • Total exports for the year were 99,461 tons compared to 95,350 tons last year, an increase of 4.3%
  • Average export price for whole apricots for 2018 crop was $2731/ton FOB compared to $3109 in the previous year.
  • Average price for diced apricots for 2018 crop was $2129 / ton FOB compared to $2296 last year

                                    Supply and sales figures for 2018 crop

                                    Crop                                      110,000 tons

                                    Carry in                                 15,000 tons

                                    Total Supply                        125,000 tons

                                     Exports                                100,000 tons

                                     Domestic sales                    15,000 tons

                                     Carry in to 2019 crop           10,000 tons

                                                           2019 supply

                                     Crop                         102,000 tons (this may be overstated)

                                     Carry in                    10,000 tons

                                     Total supply            112,000 tons

2018 crop is effectively sold out, with small amounts of work in progress and cargo in transit remaining.

2019 Crop

Harvest is more or less complete. Quality looks excellent though SO2 levels will be stubbornly high with the high sugar levels. The majority of the crop is size 1 through 4. There is much less industrial fruit, and we are likely to see the discount for diced apricots reduced.

Growers are reporting less fruit per acre than they were expecting, which is why most observers are now revising down their total crop estimate. 

Apricot consumption has been growing steadily over the past 5 years

                                                Export sales

                                    2014 crop    51,000 tons

                                    2015 crop    75,000 tons  +47%

                                    2016 crop    87,000 tons  +16%

                                    2017 crop    95,000 tons  + 9%

                                    2018 crop  100,000 tons  + 5%

 The above trend must reverse this year as there is insufficient supply, indeed we will need to see a decrease in  exports. Price will have to continue to increase to slow demand.

Prices for sulphured fruit have increased some 10% since the opening, roughly half of the increase is due to the currency the other half due to strong demand, it looks to us as if this trend will continue.

Organic apricots were disproportionately  affected by the frosts during bloom, and the overall supply of organic apricots is down around 40% compared to last year. We have seen a dramatic rise in organic prices already, from $3500 pre harvest prices to over $4500 per ton now that fruit is physically available.

Natural apricots are also significantly less this year, partly due to the frosts in the natural heavy growing regions of Dogansehir and Akcadag , but also because there are no blemishes that need disguising this season. Naturals are currently achieving a 10% premium over sulphured fruit.

 The Lira continues to strengthen as political uncertainties recede and the economy starts to show signs of improvement. Despite a 450 basis point reduction in interest rates during July, the lira has strengthened some 6% over the past month, and over 10% since early May and is currently trading at 5.48 to the $. The banking situation is also improving and credit lines are loosening up especially for exporters.