- Exports in August, the first month of the 2020 crop were a surprisingly robust 6,327 tons almost identical to last years 6,411 tons despite an increase in prices of 25%
With the harvest complete most growers are complaining of yields 30% to 60% lower than recent years.
Quality is good, very few blemishes. Sizing is large with 90% size 1 through 4. The price difference between sizes has closed significantly. We expect in a month or two size 4 will be delivered against contracts for size 5 and 6 which will no longer be available.
Natural apricot supply is lower than expected, and Naturals have now moved into a $150/ton premium to sulphured.
Organic is once again very short and almost double the price of conventional.
Demand has been brisk, prices have stabilised at TL 20 per Kg for size 3/4 sulphured and have remained at this level for the past 3 weeks. With supply at least 30% lower than recent years we will need to see a fall in exports in the coming months, and if August is anything to go by, we will need to see higher prices still to slow demand.
The TMO have said that they are happy with current pricing, and will only step in if there is any sign of weakness which at this stage seems unlikely. They may buy some symbolic quantities in the coming week for political/media attention.
The Lira has weakened a little over the past month as a result the $ price for apricots is at it lowest since the start of harvest. The Lira’s future direction is very hard to predict, a rise in interest rates could see the currency stabilise or appreciate. It is currently at 7.45 to the $.