Steady April shipments, Frost Damage Assessment
- Exports in April were 6,293 tons compared to 7,138 tons last month
- Year to date exports are 71,146 tons compared to 72,758 tons last year
Exports continue to be strong, with almost no sign of demand destruction at this years prices.
The Lira weakened over the past month and is currently 15.7 to the $. Freight rates remain firm and equipment availability is tight.
The frost in the early hours of 14 April while the majority of the region was in full bloom has caused significant damage to the crop. Our current best estimate is that half the crop was destroyed, with the low lying areas being the worst hit. The important growing regions of Darnende, Akcadag, Battalgazi, Yazihan, Dilek and Baskil all seriously damaged. Orchards above 1300 M especially those on hillsides seem to be less affected. There has been significant hail and rain over the past month resulting in blemishes.
We will do our usual detailed survey at the end of this month when the frost risk period is over and advise our findings then.
Current consensus is that at best supply will be similar to last year, and it could well be substantially less. There will again be no uncommitted carryover and a challenging transition to new crop.