Harvest of 2023 crop starts
- Exports in June were 4,296 tons compared to 4,367 tons last year
- Year to date exports are 77,330 tons compared to 78,966 tons last year
Exports for the year are likely to pass 80,000 tons, leaving 5,000 10,000 tons of carryover. Average prices for 2022 crop are 16.5% higher year to date than 2021 crop, but total exports tonnage is almost identical, demand unaffected by the higher prices.
Harvest of 2023 crop has started in low lying areas. It will be 2 to 3 weeks before we start to see new crop in the market. Quality is very poor with high levels of defects, in many areas 100% of the fruit is blemished, it remains to be seen if this fruit will be harvested or sold for juice.
We still estimate the total crop to be in the region of 50,000 to 60,000 tons.
2022 and 2023 Crop total supply comparison
2022 Opening stock 7,000 tons
2022 Crop 90,000 tons
2022 Total Supply 97,000 tons
2022 Crop Exports 81,000 tons*
2022 Domestic sales 8,000 tons*
2023 Opening stock 8,000 tons*
2023 Crop 60,000 tons* (this is our high estimate)
2023 Total Supply 68,000 tons* *Estimated
With the total supply estimated at 68,000 tons, this is the lowest total supply we have seen at least since 2014 crop which had a total supply of around 60,000 tons (of which 45,000 to 50,000 tons was carryover, a combination of 2012 and 2013 crops). The main difference this year is the poor quality of 2023 crop, with roughly half the crop being industrial.
Prices of old crop continue to rise, with very limited supply. Prices have already reached 150,000 Liras per kg for raw material.
There have been very few reports of new crop offers or sales (except for those packers locked into calendar year retail contracts), packers would normally have been well sold by now.