2018 Crop Wrap
- Exports in July were 4,380 tons, compared to 3,964 tons last year, an increase of 10 %
- Total exports for the year were 99,461 tons compared to 95,350 tons last year, an increase of 4.3%
- Average export price for whole apricots for 2018 crop was $2731/ton FOB compared to $3109 in the previous year.
- Average price for diced apricots for 2018 crop was $2129 / ton FOB compared to $2296 last year
Supply and sales figures for 2018 crop
Crop 110,000 tons
Carry in 15,000 tons
Total Supply 125,000 tons
Exports 100,000 tons
Domestic sales 15,000 tons
Carry in to 2019 crop 10,000 tons
Crop 102,000 tons (this may be overstated)
Carry in 10,000 tons
Total supply 112,000 tons
2018 crop is effectively sold out, with small amounts of work in progress and cargo in transit remaining.
Harvest is more or less complete. Quality looks excellent though SO2 levels will be stubbornly high with the high sugar levels. The majority of the crop is size 1 through 4. There is much less industrial fruit, and we are likely to see the discount for diced apricots reduced.
Growers are reporting less fruit per acre than they were expecting, which is why most observers are now revising down their total crop estimate.
Apricot consumption has been growing steadily over the past 5 years
2014 crop 51,000 tons
2015 crop 75,000 tons +47%
2016 crop 87,000 tons +16%
2017 crop 95,000 tons + 9%
2018 crop 100,000 tons + 5%
The above trend must reverse this year as there is insufficient supply, indeed we will need to see a decrease in exports. Price will have to continue to increase to slow demand.
Prices for sulphured fruit have increased some 10% since the opening, roughly half of the increase is due to the currency the other half due to strong demand, it looks to us as if this trend will continue.
Organic apricots were disproportionately affected by the frosts during bloom, and the overall supply of organic apricots is down around 40% compared to last year. We have seen a dramatic rise in organic prices already, from $3500 pre harvest prices to over $4500 per ton now that fruit is physically available.
Natural apricots are also significantly less this year, partly due to the frosts in the natural heavy growing regions of Dogansehir and Akcadag , but also because there are no blemishes that need disguising this season. Naturals are currently achieving a 10% premium over sulphured fruit.
The Lira continues to strengthen as political uncertainties recede and the economy starts to show signs of improvement. Despite a 450 basis point reduction in interest rates during July, the lira has strengthened some 6% over the past month, and over 10% since early May and is currently trading at 5.48 to the $. The banking situation is also improving and credit lines are loosening up especially for exporters.