- Exports in February were ahead of expectations at 7,357 tons compared to 8,111 tons last year a decrease of 9%
- Year to date exports are 57,392 tons compared to 66,891 tons last year, a decrease of 14 %
Prices in Lira for size 4 and smaller continue to edge higher as supply is tightening particularly for small and medium sized fruit. Size 4 has been trading above $4000 per ton over the past two weeks.
Due to a shortage of small and blemished fruit the diced prices have also increased significantly and are now above $3000 per ton.
Shipping is a major problem with multiple rollovers due to a lack of empty containers affecting every port in Turkey. Freight rates have increased up to 50% depending on destination.
The Lira is volatile, it has weakened by around 4% over the past week ahead of monthly interest rate decisions on 18th March. The markets are speculating that the governments commitment to higher interest rates and central bank independence may be waining. Inflation for February was officially 15.6%.
The first 2 weeks of February were warmer than usual with daily highs in the high teens Centigrade. Buds started to swell. From the 16th to the 22nd of February it turned very cold with temperatures down to -15 C. It is not clear if this has damaged the buds. Temperatures are now back to seasonal norms and we would expect first blossoms in around 10 days. Similar timing to last year.
Remaining stocks are tight and we believe the crop to be over 90% committed, so even good weather between now and the end of April is unlikely to have much impact of prices ahead of new crop. New crop opening prices will be decided mainly by the TMO, and with early elections on the agenda for next year, we expect similar pricing to last year if the crop is moderate/large.